What do Gartner’s 2007 predictions mean for social media? Two of the their key predictions for 2007 seemingly provide conflicting directions for social media.
Gartner prediction #3: Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first half of 2007.
Does this mean blogging is dying and no longer effective? Other than maybe being concerned about what ex-bloggers will now do with their spare time, we don’t think so. This is just digital Darwinism at work. Like the hula-hoop craze, blogging was an e-craze. People jumped in and tried it. They had fun and found ways to use technology they'd not thought about before. Then reality set in. They found that unless you have already established a routine of writing regularly, keeping up a blog can be brutal work and takes time away from the rest of your life.
The bigger impact with be on blogging services. Like any other market, this one will consolidate. There will be three to four services serving 80 percent of the market and the remaining services fighting for the remaining 20 percent. Also, the remaining bloggers will be those with truly something different to say and who understand how to use blogs.
Gartner prediction #4: By 2009, corporate social responsibility (CSR) will be a higher board- and executive-level priority than regulatory compliance. Regulation has become a key issue for government and the corporate world, with the aim of ensuring more-responsible behavior. However, the need for companies to be socially responsible to their employees, customers and shareholders is growing as well. The future will see corporate boards and executives make this social dynamic a more-critical priority.
Maybe we can thank the assault on Wal-Mart for this one. Increased social consciousness for corporations means a greater need for social media and the trying out of new tools and approaches to communicate both internally and externally. This could make social media marketing surge in the next couple of years as companies sort out how to communicate their new found social conscience.
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